Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.349206 3.626787 3.943134 4.337221 4.825704 5.427671 6.255594
2025-02-16 2.997786 3.351638 3.786164 4.381154 5.217859 6.441538 8.618223
2025-02-23 2.716090 3.084958 3.555502 4.234067 5.263699 6.958474 10.723848
2025-03-02 2.567948 2.957543 3.471877 4.250836 5.527683 7.932562 15.336536
2025-03-09 2.444239 2.844309 3.386362 4.239656 5.732333 8.927445 24.245817
2025-03-16 2.319698 2.716853 3.263863 4.146930 5.762091 9.572176 40.893419
2025-03-23 2.265147 2.678796 3.262933 4.243947 6.175618 11.645307 NaN
2025-03-30 2.159407 2.561305 3.133232 4.105797 6.068050 12.013663 NaN
2025-04-06 2.061532 2.449343 3.003662 3.953109 5.896379 12.036682 NaN
2025-04-13 1.987026 2.366726 2.913018 3.858888 5.837575 12.524403 NaN
2025-04-20 1.959958 2.350054 2.921245 3.939866 6.206955 15.730832 NaN
2025-04-27 1.956491 2.366723 2.981782 4.124672 6.915004 25.179029 NaN
2025-05-04 1.916144 2.328932 2.955820 4.147778 7.223604 37.361218 NaN
2025-05-11 1.881386 2.297795 2.938608 4.186912 7.612652 84.012788 NaN
2025-05-18 1.818715 2.221787 2.842482 4.053071 7.385928 87.132290 NaN
2025-05-25 1.786538 2.190548 2.819043 4.068347 7.687691 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.752415 2.154764 2.785572 4.058162 7.900985 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.708442 2.102214 2.720813 3.973580 7.798506 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.694931 2.095827 2.734288 4.062071 8.451380 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.649222 2.037927 2.655801 3.935999 8.119626 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.603224 1.978554 2.573033 3.796170 7.709133 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.567385 1.934182 2.515025 3.709628 7.526686 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.558154 1.930786 2.527777 3.784018 8.094241 NaN NaN